UN: US is undermining the world’s chances of meeting climate targets

The US has, single-handedly, worsened the outlook for the planet, according to a report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). The country’s shift under Donald Trump is the main reason why global warming is set to be worse than feared. No one will be spared, says UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.

If all countries stick to their climate plans and commitments, global warming will reach 2.1 degrees at some point this century, according to UNEP’s report on the so-called emissions gap.

That is a full 0.2 degrees higher than the estimate in last year’s report. The rapid deterioration is mainly due to the US withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, scrapping its climate targets and instead investing heavily in fossil fuels.

But the US will not escape the effects of climate change, warns Inger Andersen.

´Trying to limit emissions helps to mitigate this, and investing in resilience – whether it concerns coastal areas, protection against forest fires and drought, or managing crop failures – is a sensible move,´ she said at a press conference.

The US increased its greenhouse gas emissions last year by 132.5 million tonnes. This was mainly due to increased demand for electricity and greater coal combustion. The increase is higher than that of any other country. By comparison, China increased its emissions by 17.2 million tonnes, whilst the EU reduced its emissions by 7.7 million tonnes.

´The only way´

The 2015 Paris Agreement stipulated that countries should do everything in their power to keep global warming well below 2.0 degrees, and preferably below 1.5 degrees. In the very best-case scenario, the figure is now 1.7–1.8 degrees by the middle of the century, with a combination of emissions reductions and new technology then causing the curve to turn downwards towards 1.5 degrees again by the end of the century.

But this requires, first and foremost, an 18 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030. That is three times more than what the world’s countries have already pledged, and many major emitters will not even meet those targets.

But it is both feasible and sensible, argues Andersen.

´It is the only way for us to return to something resembling a reality that is still largely manageable – that is, without serious consequences – and therefore it makes sense.´

Heading towards 2.8

Under current policies, the temperature rise looks set to reach 2.8 degrees by the end of the century, according to UNEP.

In a report full of graphs pointing in the wrong direction, the expansion of renewable energy is highlighted as a positive development. Compared with 2015, wind and solar power have expanded rapidly, and demand for coal and oil is lower than was thought at the time.

´We have 5,000 gigawatts of renewable energy. We need a further 5,000 (by 2030), and this can be achieved swiftly, with political leadership and courage,´ says Andersen.

^{Cover photo: A driver moves coal at the Bull Mountains mine in Montana, USA.}