UN-report: The World is Heading for 2.5 Degree Warming – Then Cod Will Disappear from the Baltic Sea
The new report from the United Nations Environment Programme, Emissions Gap Report, states that the world has so far failed to slow down climate change sufficiently. For the ocean, this means dying corals, migrating species and even higher temperatures.
´Cod may abandon the North Sea and the Baltic Sea altogether, says Kerstin Johannesson, professor of marine ecology at the University of Gothenburg.´
Text: Arvid Wiclander Mellgren
‘Off target.’ That is the headline of the newly released report, which states that the world is currently heading for a 2.5-degree rise in temperature – if all countries follow through on their climate commitments. If not, we are instead heading for a full 2.8-degree rise.
Kerstin Johannesson is a professor of marine ecology at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden. She notes that this particularly affects our Swedish sea areas, which are already becoming warmer.
´The interesting thing here is that they say 2.5 degrees globally. That means an even greater temperature increase for the Baltic Sea and the North Sea because they are such shallow seas,’ says Kerstin Johannesson.
´The old forecasts for the Baltic Sea were that it could become as much as 6 degrees warmer, and this was based on achieving the 2-degree target.´
She believes that species in shallow sea areas such as the Baltic Sea are relatively resistant to extreme temperatures, but that the consequences will still be significant if climate change becomes too extreme. Cod is one of the species that needs cold water and could disappear completely if the sea warms up too much.
´It may be forced northwards and abandon both the North Sea and the Baltic Sea entirely. Cod stocks may disappear,´ says Kerstin Johannesson.
The ecosystems off the Swedish coast are therefore facing major changes unless climate change is slowed down.
´These are quite dramatic figures. Just think, a six-degree rise in temperature in the Gulf of Bothnia – what would happen then? No ice formation around our coasts, no cold winters. This could cause problems for the Baltic Sea ecosystem and allow new and unwanted species to enter, concludes the professor.´
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