Editorial: Should We View Nature as a Security risk?
A few weeks ago, the British government released a report written by the country’s intelligence service. They have assessed the consequences of the climate crisis and show how the impending collapse of ecosystems and loss of biodiversity pose a direct threat to Britain’s national security.
The report is addressed to the British government, but the security risks do not remain within any national borders.
Text: Lena Scherman
I thought it would hit like a bomb, but apart from a few scattered news articles, it seems to have gone under the radar. Perhaps we have been too preoccupied with Epstein, Ukraine, Gaza and Trump to care about a possible future system collapse. But the conclusions in the report are like a future horror film, and the consequences of the climate crisis are no longer hypothetical, they are for real.
In its design, the report is more of an intelligence report than an environmental strategy. This is perhaps not surprising, considering who wrote it, but it also gives the words more weight.
The conclusions are crystal clear: global ecosystem collapse threatens not only security but also prosperity in the United Kingdom. Unless society responds with major efforts, the risks will only grow in the future.
Traditionally, countries’ security thinking has focused on issues such as terrorism, energy supply, cyber threats and enemy states. Now, the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem collapse have been added to the list. The report states that this is not an isolated environmental problem. It has consequences in all areas: economic, political and social. And since neither ecosystem collapse nor the loss of biodiversity are confined within national borders, it will affect everyone.
Migration will increase as a result of reduced access to food and water. Crime will increase, and what are known as non-state actors, such as terrorist groups, risk gaining control over scarce resources. The risk of pandemics will increase. In addition, we risk conflicts between countries and military escalation both between and within states.
The uncertainty in the text lies in the time frame, i.e. it is unclear exactly when we will pass the point of no return. However, it is absolutely certain that it will happen. The tone is cool and matter-of-fact, with precise graphs and calculations. The list of ways in which we will be affected is long and extensive.
It can actually feel quite refreshing when a top-secret intelligence organisation writes that we must protect biodiversity. Protect at least 30% of our oceans and land. Limit global warming to 1.5°C.
The report should have hit like a bombshell. But it already seems to have been forgotten – or has it?
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