A Powerful El Niño is Approaching, Bringing Heat and Extreme Weather
Scientists and government agencies are closely monitoring developments in the Pacific Ocean. A new El Niño could lead to sharply rising temperatures and global heat records in the coming year.
El Niño conditions mean that surface water temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean are warmer than normal. According to the latest report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), surface water temperatures are rising rapidly, which could indicate El Niño conditions as early as May–July of this year.
“Data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows that there is a slightly more than 50 percent chance that a strong El Niño will develop toward the end of the year,” says Erik Kjellström, professor of climatology at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI).
It is still too early to say anything in detail, but the likelihood of an El Niño developing into a strong one later this year has increased significantly over the spring.
Closer to the equator
The areas most affected by El Niño conditions are closer to the equator and may experience significantly increased precipitation or severe drought. Up here in the north, there is no clear signal.
Some studies suggest that during a strong El Niño, slightly colder winters are relatively common up here in Scandinavia. But this is not a certainty, and it’s not something on which one can base reliable forecasts.
But that doesn’t mean El Niño can’t have consequences for the entire planeten.
The last time El Niño conditions prevailed was in 2023–2024, and 2024 became the warmest year on record due to the combination of a powerful El Niño and human-induced climate change.
Although it is too early to draw any definitive conclusions, there are also signs that a “super-El Niño” is developing, which would exacerbate extreme weather events in large parts of the world and contribute to raising the global average temperature.
At risk of extreme weather
There are no clear signs that climate change is affecting the frequency or intensity of El Niño, but it may amplify the effects of this weather phenomenon. In short, extreme weather events are likely to become even more extreme.
“As the climate warms, we also see a more intense hydrological cycle, so that both precipitation and evaporation increase in intensity,” explains Erik Kjellström.
If you imagine an El Niño situation with very dry conditions in Australia, the drought could become even more severe in a warmer climate. But in places where it rains heavily, such as Ecuador, Peru, or parts of the U.S., precipitation could become even more intense in a warmer climate.
El Niño and La Niña are phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weather cycle. El Niño warms the surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, while La Niña cools them.
El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years and typically lasts nine to twelve months. The peak often occurs around Christmas, hence the name El Niño (the boy child).
El Niño effects, such as increased precipitation, typically affect parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia, while severe drought can occur across Australia, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia.
The 2023–2024 El Niño is reported to be one of the five strongest ever recorded.
Source: WMO, SMHI, NOAA
