Many parts of the world – already 1.5 degrees warmer

Large parts of the world have already experienced a temperature rise of more than 1.5 degrees. New estimates suggest that the world is rapidly heading towards a two-degree rise.

Under the Paris Agreement, the world’s nations are to strive to limit the rise in temperature to 1.5 degrees compared with pre-industrial levels.

The UN has concluded that this will not be possible, and new calculations suggest that the limit has already been exceeded in several parts of the world. In a study published in Nature Climate Change, researchers have used historical data and climate models to forecast how global warming will affect different parts of the world, including places where data is scarce.

‘We have used data and simulation models and, for the first time, have been able to estimate the impact of global warming even in regions where comprehensive data has been lacking,’ said Francis Zwiers, a climate researcher at the University of Victoria in Canada, during a press conference.

Already there

According to the researchers behind the study, there is strong evidence to suggest that by 2025, many parts of the world will have already experienced around 90 per cent of the warming expected when the planet has warmed by 1.5 degrees.

Parts of Europe and Canada are highlighted as regions that have already experienced a two-degree rise in temperature.

‘We now have further evidence that we will soon exceed the 1.5-degree target and need to act swiftly to avoid exceeding two degrees,’ says Tong Li, also a climate researcher at the University of Victoria and another of the study’s authors.

Warmest October

The findings could support local adaptation plans and estimates of climate-related damage and losses.

‘If you’re building bridges or houses, you have to take this into account. We need to consider what climate we’re designing for and how we’re going to cope with it,’ says Tong Li.

The researchers are publishing their findings at the same time as the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service has confirmed that October 2026 was the warmest October on record globally, with an average temperature 1.75 degrees above the pre-industrial mean.

With just two months to go, all the signs point to the global average temperature for the year exceeding 1.5 degrees. If so, it will be the second calendar year after 2024 to do so.

^{Cover image: Photo: Factory workers in Palsana, India, during a heatwave in May 2026. Ajit Solanki/AP/TT}