{"id":44464,"date":"2026-07-23T23:47:36","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T21:47:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.deepseareporter.com\/?p=44464"},"modified":"2026-07-24T08:41:12","modified_gmt":"2026-07-24T06:41:12","slug":"rockstrom-varnar-ett-hot-eskalerar-i-tysthet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.deepseareporter.com\/sv\/rockstrom-varnar-ett-hot-eskalerar-i-tysthet\/","title":{"rendered":"Rockstr\u00f6m varnar \u2013 ett hot eskalerar i\u00a0tysthet"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Marika Griehsel<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I en debattartikel, nyligen publicerad i Svenska Dagbladet, beskriver Johan Rockstr\u00f6m, professor i jordsystem\u00advetenskap och hans kollega Wendy Broadgate,
doktor i marinkemi, vikten av att svenska regeringen snarast utarbetar en beredskapsplan ifall havsstr\u00f6mssystemet AMOC skulle bromsa in eller kollapsa.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

AMOC (Atlantiska meridionala cirkulationen) \u00e4r det stora system av havsstr\u00f6mmar som har en avg\u00f6rande roll i att reglera Europas klimat. En kollaps skulle f\u00e5 f\u00f6r\u00f6dande konsekvenser med betydligt kallare vintrar, inte minst i Norden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De tv\u00e5 klimatexperterna beskriver en eventuell f\u00f6r\u00e4ndring av AMOC som ett hot som eskalerar i tysthet utanf\u00f6r Sveriges kust.  
Rockstr\u00f6m och Broadgate efterlyser engagemang och ett snabbt agerade fr\u00e5n beslutfattare och myndigheter och skriver f\u00f6ljande;
FN:s klimatpanel IPCC bed\u00f6mde 2021 att en AMOC-kollaps inte \u00e4r trolig f\u00f6re \u00e5r 2100, men nyare forskning<\/a> pekar mot en betydligt h\u00f6gre risk<\/a>. Detta bygger inte p\u00e5 enskilda studier med extrema antaganden utan p\u00e5 nya klimatanalyser som baseras p\u00e5 IPCC-data.
Sannolikheten f\u00f6r drastisk inbromsning eller till och med kollaps bed\u00f6mer vi konservativt till 10 procent eller mer. Det som f\u00f6rr s\u00e5gs som en avl\u00e4gsen risk \u00e4r numera ett reellt hot.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u00e4nk till debattartikel.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Johan Rockstr\u00f6m och Wendy Broadgate f\u00f6resl\u00e5r bland annat att Sverige tills\u00e4tter en statlig utredning som unders\u00f6ker riskerna f\u00f6r matproduktion, infrastruktur och s\u00e4kerhet. Att Sverige tar t\u00e4ten och i samarbetet med andra nordiska l\u00e4nder och EU g\u00f6r fr\u00e5gan runt AMOC, inte enbart till en milj\u00f6fr\u00e5ga utan att b\u00e5de ekonomisk- och nationell s\u00e4kerhet beaktas. De efterlyser ocks\u00e5 ett avancerat \u00f6vervakningssystem av havsstr\u00f6mmar samt att Sveriges regering verkar f\u00f6r en drastisk minskning av utsl\u00e4pp av v\u00e4xthusgaser.
 
AMOC, f\u00f6r med sig varmt vatten fr\u00e5n tropikerna norrut mot Arktis, och detta fl\u00f6de av varmt vatten bidrar till att ge Europa milda vintrar. Men globala stigande temperaturerna p\u00e5skyndar upptiningen av den arktiska isen och f\u00e5r sm\u00e4ltvatten fr\u00e5n Gr\u00f6nlands ist\u00e4cke att str\u00f6mma ut i havet. Det \u00e4r fr\u00e4mst detta kalla s\u00f6tvatten som kan st\u00f6ra str\u00f6mmen, varnar forskare<\/a> .
Ett eventuellt sammanbrott skulle kunna utl\u00f6sa en modern istid, d\u00e4r vintertemperaturerna i hela Nordeuropa sjunker till nya extrema l\u00e5gniv\u00e5er och medf\u00f6r betydligt mer sn\u00f6 och is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


I Island har myndigheterna redan klassat ett eventuellt sammanbrott i det viktigt havsstr\u00f6msystem i Atlanten som en nationell s\u00e4kerhetsfr\u00e5ga och ett existentiellt hot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regeringen har b\u00f6rjat att utarbeta strategier f\u00f6r v\u00e4rsta t\u00e4nkbara scenarier, uppger landets klimatminister, Johann Pall Johannsson till nyhetsbyr\u00e5n Reuters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Det \u00e4r ett direkt hot mot v\u00e5r nationella motst\u00e5ndskraft och s\u00e4kerhet, s\u00e4ger Johann Pall Johannsson. Det \u00e4r f\u00f6rsta g\u00e5ngen ett specifikt klimatrelaterat fenomen formellt har tagits upp i Nationella s\u00e4kerhetsr\u00e5det som ett potentiellt existentiellt hot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Ett sammanbrott i den atlantiska str\u00f6mmen skulle kunna f\u00e5 konsekvenser l\u00e5ngt utanf\u00f6r Nordeuropa. Enligt forskare skulle det potentiellt kunna destabilisera de l\u00e5ngvariga nederb\u00f6rdsm\u00f6nster som sj\u00e4lvf\u00f6rs\u00f6rjande b\u00f6nder i Afrika, Indien och Sydamerika \u00e4r beroende av. Det skulle ocks\u00e5 kunna bidra till en snabbare uppv\u00e4rmning i Antarktis, d\u00e4r havsisen som omger den sydligaste kontinenten liksom ist\u00e4cket ovanp\u00e5 den redan \u00e4r hotade<\/a> av klimatf\u00f6r\u00e4ndringarna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


– Island tar inga risker, nu n\u00e4r uppv\u00e4rmningstakten \u00f6kar och utsl\u00e4ppen av v\u00e4xthusgaser forts\u00e4tter att stiga, s\u00e4ger Johann Pall Johannsson. Havsisen kan p\u00e5verka sj\u00f6transporterna; extremv\u00e4der kan allvarligt p\u00e5verka v\u00e5r f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga att uppr\u00e4tth\u00e5lla jordbruk och fiske, som \u00e4r centrala f\u00f6r v\u00e5r ekonomi och v\u00e5ra livsmedelssystem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Vi har inte r\u00e5d att v\u00e4nta p\u00e5 definitiva, l\u00e5ngsiktiga forskningsresultat innan vi agerar. \u00a0
\u00a0
\u00a0
Om Deep Sea Reporter:\u00a0<\/strong>V\u00e5r ambition \u00e4r att granska och skildra fr\u00e5gor som r\u00f6r havet och det liv som finns under ytan. Vi verkar i allm\u00e4nhetens tj\u00e4nst och drivs sj\u00e4lvst\u00e4ndigt i f\u00f6rh\u00e5llande till politiska, kommersiella och andra intressen i samh\u00e4llet.
<\/sup>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Marika Griehsel I en debattartikel, nyligen publicerad i Svenska Dagbladet, beskriver Johan Rockstr\u00f6m, professor i jordsystem\u00advetenskap och hans kollega Wendy Broadgate,doktor i marinkemi, vikten av att svenska regeringen snarast utarbetar en beredskapsplan ifall havsstr\u00f6mssystemet AMOC skulle bromsa in eller kollapsa. AMOC (Atlantiska meridionala cirkulationen) \u00e4r det stora system av havsstr\u00f6mmar som har en avg\u00f6rande roll i att reglera Europas […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":44465,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[252,580,244],"tags":[339,632,1908],"class_list":["post-44464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forskning","category-internationellt","category-klimat-och-miljo","tag-klimatforandringar","tag-research","tag-varmare-klimat"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRockstr\u00f6m varnar \u2013 ett hot eskalerar i\u00a0tysthet - Deep Sea Reporter<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"I en debattartikel, nyligen publicerad i Svenska Dagbladet \u00a0beskriver Johan Rockstr\u00f6m, professor i\u00a0jordsystem\u00advetenskap och hans kollega Wendy Broadgatedoktor i\u00a0marinkemi, vikten av att svenska regeringen snarast utarbetar en beredskapsplan ifall havsstr\u00f6mssystemet AMOC skulle bromsa in eller kollapsa.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.deepseareporter.com\/sv\/rockstrom-varnar-ett-hot-eskalerar-i-tysthet\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rockstr\u00f6m varnar \u2013 ett hot eskalerar i\u00a0tysthet - 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