{"id":27728,"date":"2023-05-08T09:10:37","date_gmt":"2023-05-08T07:10:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.deepseareporter.com\/?p=27728"},"modified":"2023-05-08T09:33:13","modified_gmt":"2023-05-08T07:33:13","slug":"risk-for-rekordvarme-varnar-fn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.deepseareporter.com\/sv\/risk-for-rekordvarme-varnar-fn\/","title":{"rendered":"Risk f\u00f6r rekordv\u00e4rme – varnar FN"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

G\u00f6r er redo \u2013 den lilla gossen \u00e4r i ant\u00e5gande.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FN:s uppmaning handlar om El Ni\u00f1o, ett m\u00e4ktigt v\u00e4derfenomen som kan f\u00e5 f\u00f6r\u00f6dande effekter p\u00e5 en redan varm planet.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tv\u00e5 syskon styr och st\u00e4ller i Stilla havet och f\u00e5r meteorologer att h\u00e5lla ett extra \u00f6ga p\u00e5 observationer och prognosmodeller. De senaste \u00e5ren har v\u00e4derfenomenet La Ni\u00f1a (flickan p\u00e5 spanska) haft en kylande effekt p\u00e5 jordens klimat. Men snart v\u00e4ntas brodern El Ni\u00f1o (gossebarnet) f\u00e4rga temperaturkartorna r\u00f6da, vilket skvallrar om att en varmare fas v\u00e4ntar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-El Ni\u00f1o \u00e4r ett storskaligt fenomen i Stilla havet, som involverar b\u00e5de vindar och havsytetemperaturer och som har stor p\u00e5verkan p\u00e5 v\u00e4dret i omr\u00e5det, s\u00e4ger Erik Kjellstr\u00f6m, professor i klimatologi vid SMHI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Effekterna blir stora och med den globala uppv\u00e4rmningen finns risk att m\u00e5nga av dem blir v\u00e4rre och mer utpr\u00e4glade. Det g\u00f6r att man p\u00e5 ett s\u00e4tt ser p\u00e5 det h\u00e4r med oro, \u00e4ven om det \u00e4r ett naturligt fenomen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prognosen<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Just nu r\u00e5der neutrala f\u00f6rh\u00e5llanden i Stilla havet men sannolikheten f\u00f6r att El Ni\u00f1o ska utvecklas senare i \u00e5r \u00f6kar, enligt en prognos fr\u00e5n FN:s meteorologiska organisation WMO. Sannolikheten f\u00f6r en \u00f6verg\u00e5ng till El Ni\u00f1o i maj\u2013juli bed\u00f6mer WMO vara 60 procent, omkring 70 procent juni\u2013augusti och 80 procent juli\u2013september.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ingen vet hur intensivt eller l\u00e5ngvarigt v\u00e4derfenomenet blir den h\u00e4r g\u00e5ngen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Vissa \u00e5r \u00e4r det kraftigare och andra \u00e5r \u00e4r det svagare f\u00f6rh\u00e5llanden, s\u00e4ger Kjellstr\u00f6m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o f\u00f6rknippas med \u00f6kad v\u00e4rme, torka eller nederb\u00f6rd. Det \u00e4r fr\u00e4mst l\u00e4nder i Stilla havsomr\u00e5det som p\u00e5verkas, framf\u00f6r allt i Oceanien, Indonesien och Sydamerika men \u00e4ven delar av Nordamerika och mer avl\u00e4gsna omr\u00e5den \u00f6ver Asien och Afrika.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I Europa \u00e4r signalerna v\u00e4sentligt svagare och p\u00e5verkan inte lika tydlig. Av vad vi k\u00e4nner till i dag g\u00e5r det inte att generellt s\u00e4ga huruvida det blir varmare eller kallare i Skandinavien till f\u00f6ljd av El Ni\u00f1o eller La Ni\u00f1a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Under normala f\u00f6rh\u00e5llanden pressar passadvindarna fr\u00e5n Sydamerikas v\u00e4stkust ytvattnet v\u00e4sterut mot Indonesien och Australien. Grafik; Johan Halln\u00e4s\/TT<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e4rmerekord?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

D\u00e4remot finns en tydlig koppling till den globala medeltemperaturen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De senaste \u00e5tta \u00e5ren \u00e4r de varmaste som har uppm\u00e4tts \u2013 trots att La Ni\u00f1a i flera \u00e5r har fungerat som tillf\u00e4llig broms f\u00f6r den globala temperatur\u00f6kningen. Nu finns risk f\u00f6r nya toppnoteringar, konstaterar WMO-chefen Petteri Taalas och manar v\u00e4rlden att f\u00f6rbereda sig f\u00f6r v\u00e4derfenomenets ankomst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

”Utvecklingen av en El Ni\u00f1o kommer med st\u00f6rsta sannolikhet att leda till en ny topp i den globala uppv\u00e4rmningen och \u00f6ka risken f\u00f6r temperaturrekord”, skriver han.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c4ven EU:s klimatf\u00f6r\u00e4ndringstj\u00e4nst Copernicus h\u00e5ller det f\u00f6r troligt att 2023 eller 2024 kan komma att bli det varmaste \u00e5ret som uppm\u00e4tts globalt. Den nuvarande toppnoteringen gjordes 2016, vilket WMO f\u00f6rklarar med en dubbelsmocka best\u00e5ende av El Ni\u00f1o och m\u00e4nniskans fortsatta utsl\u00e4pp av v\u00e4xthusgaser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den globala medeltemperaturen \u00e4r redan 1,1 grader h\u00f6gre \u00e4n under f\u00f6rindustriell tid. Trots att de flesta av v\u00e4rldens l\u00e4nder har lovat det motsatta fortsatte de globala koldioxidutsl\u00e4ppen upp\u00e5t f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret, vilket driver p\u00e5 uppv\u00e4rmningen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e4ra gr\u00e4nsen<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Med El Ni\u00f1o med i leken kan temperaturen f\u00e5 ytterligare en skjuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Ett \u00e5r med en v\u00e4ldigt kraftig El Ni\u00f1o kan den globala medeltemperaturen \u00f6ka med 0,1 eller 0,2 grader, s\u00e4ger Kjellstr\u00f6m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-F\u00f6r att undvika de mest f\u00f6r\u00f6dande konsekvenserna av klimatf\u00f6r\u00e4ndringarna har v\u00e4rlden kommit \u00f6verens om att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka h\u00e5lla den globala uppv\u00e4rmningen under 1,5 grader. Den gr\u00e4nsen i Parisavtalet \u00e4r inte l\u00e5ngt borta, konstaterar Kjellstr\u00f6m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r sannolikt att f\u00f6rsta g\u00e5ngen som vi kommer att passera 1,5 grader kommer att vara under ett El Ni\u00f1o-\u00e5r, \u00e4ven om det inte blir just den h\u00e4r g\u00e5ngen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
El Ni\u00f1o \u00e4r ett v\u00e4derfenomen som uppst\u00e5r med ett intervall p\u00e5 tv\u00e5 till sju \u00e5r. Grafik; Johan Halln\u00e4s\/TT<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sofia Eriksson\/TT<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

G\u00f6r er redo \u2013 den lilla gossen \u00e4r i ant\u00e5gande.<\/p>\n

FN:s uppmaning handlar om El Ni\u00f1o, ett m\u00e4ktigt v\u00e4derfenomen som kan f\u00e5\u00a0f\u00f6r\u00f6dande effekter p\u00e5 en redan varm planet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":27726,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[244,1],"tags":[1288,339,1289,1291,1290],"class_list":["post-27728","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-klimat-och-miljo","category-ovrigt","tag-el-nino","tag-klimatforandringar","tag-la-nina","tag-vaderfenomen","tag-varmerekord"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRisk f\u00f6r rekordv\u00e4rme - varnar FN - Deep Sea Reporter<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"G\u00f6r er redo \u2013 den lilla gossen \u00e4r i ant\u00e5gande.FN:s uppmaning handlar om El Ni\u00f1o, ett m\u00e4ktigt v\u00e4derfenomen som kan f\u00e5\u00a0f\u00f6r\u00f6dande effekter p\u00e5 en redan varm planet.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.deepseareporter.com\/sv\/risk-for-rekordvarme-varnar-fn\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Risk f\u00f6r rekordv\u00e4rme - 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